Three major factors affecting the trend of these festival a yaoezi had to prevent-www.xici.net

Three major factors affecting the trend of A shares after the yaoezi have anti Sina Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors are using the source: City Express during the Spring Festival, A shares closed 9 days. After a year of ups and downs and January plunge, investors finally can temporarily put aside at market value change, have a good year. But at the same time, the foreign capital market is not the Spring Festival, but the derivative varieties are still trading. Therefore, during the long holiday, the dollar exchange rate changes, the price of crude oil, the price of gold will directly affect the A shares after the start of the year of the monkey’s performance. The trend of the A shares after the dollar is strong and weak. In the second half of last year, due to the strong interest rate hike expectations of the US dollar, the emerging Asian market currencies dominated by China face greater pressure of capital flight. The ensuing devaluation of assets associated with emerging market currencies has led to the brunt of the stock market. After June 15, 2015, A shares through several rounds of rapid decline, which is to leverage the market valuation regression, analysis and many other factors, but who can deny that the dollar interest rate expectations for emerging market impact. The shock did not ease until the Fed raised interest rates. Beijing time on the morning of December 17, 2015, the Federal Reserve officially announced a hike of 0.25 percentage points, the day the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.81%, the Asian major emerging market countries are rising in different amplitude, there is a kind of "boots landing" relieved. But the dollar’s strength has not completely gone away. At the beginning of this year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar devaluation, triggered a new round of A shares to sell, the Shanghai composite index plunged 22.65% in a month. Some analysts pointed out that the dollar’s strength is obvious for RMB assets, the new year soon based on the collapse of the stock market last year, the RMB exchange rate, and collapse, the revaluation of RMB assets directly caused, a lot of stock in the cut on the basis of again by half. For the management, this is a difficult problem, first to save the stock market or first save the market? Subsequently, the management made a relatively wise decision, at the beginning of the year to focus on stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, which will stabilize the subsequent stabilization of A shares will be very critical. The good news is that on Thursday evening, the offshore renminbi rose to more than 500 points against the dollar, hitting 6.5626 at one point, the strongest since mid January, while yesterday’s offshore yuan saw only a slight drop against the dollar. This means that the RMB can be relatively easy to welcome the monkey year spring festival. However, during the Spring Festival, the dollar trend is still critical. Overseas Chinese bank Xie Dongming said, "after the Spring Festival, the RMB’s short-term trend still depends on the dollar.". Under the revaluation of the interest rate revaluation in the United States, the dollar has been phased peaked." Commodity prices become a short-term barometer, as well as the dollar exchange rate. Another indicator of the A share market is the price of international commodities. Today, the trend of commodities, including international gold and international crude oil, has become more and more closely related to stock and foreign exchange, and has become a key link in the international financial market chain. First, on the theory of

三大因素影响节后A股走势 这些幺蛾子不得不防 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   来源:都市快报   春节期间,A股休市9天。经历了一整年的跌宕起伏和1月份的急跌,广大股民终于可以暂时把市值增减放一边,安心过个好年。但与此同时,国外资本市场却不过春节,相关衍生品种仍在交易。因此,长假期间,美元汇率、原油价格、黄金价格的变化,将直接影响猴年A股开年后的表现。   美元强弱左右节后A股走势   去年下半年,由于美元强烈的加息预期,以中国为主的亚洲新兴市场货币面临较大的资本外逃压力。随之而来的,是以新兴市场货币计价的相关资产大幅贬值,股市首当其冲。   2015年6月15日之后,A股经历几轮快速下跌,其中有去杠杆、估值回归、市场整肃等诸多因素,但谁也无法否认,美元加息预期对于新兴市场的冲击。这一冲击直到美联储加息落地之后才有所缓和。   北京时间2015年12月17日凌晨,美联储正式宣布加息0.25个百分点,当天上证综指大涨1.81%,亚洲各主要新兴市场国家股市均出现不同幅度上涨,大有一种“靴子落地”的释然。   不过,美元强势的阴霾并未完全散去。新年伊始,人民币兑美元大幅贬值,引发A股新一轮杀跌,上证综指在一个月内暴跌22.65%。有分析指出,美元汇率 的强弱对于人民币资产影响是十分明显的,在去年股市暴跌的基础上,开年不久,人民币汇率又发生暴跌,直接引发人民币资产的价值重估,不少个股在腰斩基础上 再次被打对折。   对于管理层来说,这是个难题,先救股市还是先救汇市?随后,管理层做出了相对明智的决定,年初先集中精力稳住人民币汇率,这对于A股后续的企稳将十分关键。   一个好消息在于,周四晚间离岸人民币兑美元曾大涨逾500点一度触及6.5626, 创1月中旬以来最强, 而昨日离岸外人民币兑美元仅小幅下挫。这意味着人民币可以相对轻松地迎接猴年春节。   不过,春节期间,美元走势仍然十分关键。华侨银行的谢栋铭表示, “春节后人民币的短期走势依然取决于美元。在美国加息概率重估之下,美元已阶段性见顶。”   大宗商品价格成为短期风向标   与美元汇率一样,另一项能左右节后A股市场的指标在于国际大宗商品价格。现如今包括国际黄金、国际原油等在内的大宗商品走势,与股票、外汇的联系越来越紧密,并成为国际金融市场链条中密不可分的关键一环。   一、国际黄金   在一般情况下,国际金价与美元价格往往走势相反。在美元短期走弱的背景下,大宗金属价格近期全面上涨,截至昨日晚间21点30分,现货黄金突破1160美元 盎司。   在二级市场上,相关黄金概念股走势强劲。山东黄金本周累计涨幅已经达到20.66%,昨日强势涨停。春节假期期间,黄金价格的走势对于国际金融有重要影响。   汇丰银行在最新报告中指出,“自去年12月以来,美国国债收益率已经下降,起初对黄金影响不大,但随着美联储加息预期的减少,国债收益率下降,黄金走势逆转向上。而且美国国债的旺盛的需求并对美元产生什么帮助,反之美元的走弱则对国债形成支撑,黄金尤其受益。”   黄金价格的上涨对于股市的带动也十分明显,以黄金股、有色股为代表的权重板块,若在节后延续强势表现,将对短期A股的企稳有所帮助。   相关个股:山东黄金(600547)、西部黄金(601069)   二、国际原油   与黄金类似,春节期间国际原油的走势对于后市的影响也十分明显。昨日晚间,美国1月非农就业人口表现意外大幅差于预期,但失业率意外降至4.9%。受此影响,美原油3月期货短线冲高后回落至31.81美元 桶。   兴证期货分析师刘佳利认为,俄罗斯是最大摇摆因素。刘佳利亦表示,如果对过去20年俄罗斯与OPEC在原油减产方面的4次合作历史加以考察,就能发现它 们的合作充满了由争夺市场份额带来的剑拔弩张的局面,“过去由于OPEC的施压,俄罗斯确实进行了一定程度的减产,但程度相当有限,而且持续时间不长。” 花旗银行则在近日的研究报告中称,虽然基本面仍然偏熊,但其认为目前油价已经触底,预计2016年第四季度WTI油价将回到55美元 桶。   相关个股:中国石化(600028)、中海油服(601808) 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: